Summary

Operation Undercut is a covert influence operation conducted by Russia’s Social Design Agency (SDA) to sway public opinion against Ukraine and weaken Western support. Leveraging AI-enhanced videos and impersonating reputable news sources, Operation Undercut disseminates disinformation targeting audiences across the US, Ukraine, and Europe. This operation, running in tandem with other campaigns like Doppelgänger, is designed to discredit Ukraine’s leadership, question the effectiveness of Western aid, and stir socio-political tensions. The campaign also seeks to shape narratives around the 2024 US elections and geopolitical conflicts, such as the Israel-Gaza situation, to deepen divisions.

"Operation Undercut" Shows Multifaceted Nature of SDA’s Influence Operations

Russia's Social Design Agency (SDA) has been running an influence operation known as "Operation Undercut" since late 2023, aiming to erode Western support for Ukraine. Using a mix of AI-enhanced media and impersonation tactics, Operation Undercut employs advanced methods to manipulate public opinion.

Objectives

Operation Undercut is part of Russia's broader strategy to destabilize Western alliances and portray Ukraine’s leadership as ineffective and corrupt. By targeting audiences in Europe and the US, the SDA seeks to amplify anti-Ukraine sentiment, hoping to reduce the flow of Western military aid to Ukraine. The operation also spreads narratives that suggest US and EU involvement in Ukraine is misguided, costly, and largely ineffective.

In addition to undermining support for Ukraine, Operation Undercut seeks to widen existing divisions within Western societies. The campaign addresses several geopolitical issues, such as the Israel-Gaza conflict, the EU's internal politics, and the 2024 US elections. By connecting Ukraine's fate to these contentious topics, Operation Undercut attempts to stoke anxieties and polarize public opinion.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs)

AI-Enhanced Videos and Impersonation of News Outlets

Operation Undercut uses AI-enhanced videos and images, many of which mimic trusted media sources, to make disinformation appear credible. AI-generated voiceovers and realistic images amplify these narratives, creating content that is difficult to distinguish from legitimate news. By adopting branding elements from respected outlets, the operation enhances its content’s believability, misleading audiences and eroding trust in genuine media sources.

Targeted Social Media Campaigns

SDA's accounts post highly tailored content on multiple platforms, often using trending hashtags to reach target audiences. The content varies by region and language, including posts in English, German, French, Polish, and Turkish, ensuring that messages resonate across diverse audiences. By focusing on real-time issues, the operation maximizes its reach, though most posts have shown limited engagement.

Amplification of CopyCop Content

Operation Undercut has amplified content from CopyCop (also known as Storm-1516), a Russian influence network linked to John Mark Dougan and allegedly backed by Alexander Dugin's Centre for Geopolitical Expertise (CGE) and the GRU's Unit 29155. Examples include a deepfake video featuring a supposed Hamas member threatening the 2024 Paris Olympics and an image accusing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky of buying an Italian villa during the 2024 G7 summit.

Key Narratives

Discrediting Ukraine and Western Aid

One of Operation Undercut’s primary themes is discrediting Ukraine’s leadership and questioning the effectiveness of Western aid. The campaign accuses Ukrainian leaders of corruption, claiming they misuse foreign aid to fund luxurious lifestyles. This narrative aims to undermine public support for continued financial and military assistance to Ukraine, particularly among European audiences.

Exploiting the Israel-Gaza Conflict

The operation also attempts to manipulate public opinion regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict, alleging Western bias and intelligence manipulation. By highlighting divisive issues in global politics, Operation Undercut creates distractions and deepens divides, weakening Western alliances and distracting from Russia's involvement in Ukraine.

Tensions Within the EU and US Election Influence

Operation Undercut amplifies existing political tensions within the European Union by supporting far-right narratives and criticizing EU leaders. Similarly, it seeks to influence the 2024 US elections by framing military aid to Ukraine as a contentious political issue. By presenting Ukraine’s future as contingent on US election outcomes, the operation fosters anxiety over the West's political stability.

Mitigations

• News organizations should track content from known influence actors who are likely abusing their brand. Such abuse increases reputational risks and erodes consumer trust, potentially deterring advertisers and inflicting financial harm on the impersonated organizations.
• Political leaders and government officials from countries providing support to Ukraine should continue monitoring for content attempting to discredit them to identify and counter emerging narratives.
• Public and news organizations can use Recorded Future® Brand Intelligence to track and combat typosquatting domains and infringing content on similar domains, which can harm a news organization’s reputation.
• Clients can use the Recorded Future Intelligence Cloud to track Operation Undercut activity and Recorded Future AI to summarize and track emerging narratives.

Outlook

The SDA is expected to continue running influence operations, including Operation Undercut, while likely rebuilding infrastructure for Doppelgänger and using established content and amplification tactics. Tasked by Russia’s Presidential Administration, these operations aim to shape global opinions on Ukraine and exploit major events to undermine support for Ukraine. The investigation, which uses data from Recorded Future, government sources, and other reports, underscores the value of a collaborative approach across sectors to expose and disrupt these destabilizing activities.

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